Gold Bullion Trade 2026: Structure of the World Market and Volumes

By: GOLD MINERS CLUB

Prepared 11 November 2026. Figures are the latest published at that date; Q4 2026 data is not yet available.

Summary

The global gold bullion market in 2026 is a two-speed system. A small physical core of mining, refining, vaulting and consumer demand runs at roughly 1,300 to 1,400 tonnes a quarter. Around it sits a far larger paper and clearing layer, centered on London, where daily turnover in value terms can exceed an entire quarter of physical demand. Prices near US$4,000 to US$4,600 per ounce have cut jewelry and retail purchases, while central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have carried demand.

1. How the market is built

Gold trades in five connected layers.

Supply and refining. Mined and recycled gold is refined into bars, with Switzerland the Prepared 11 November 2026. Figures are the latest published at that date; Q4 2026 data is not yet available.

main refining and transit hub. Swiss customs data is the best public read on where kilobars and larger bars flow next.

Wholesale over-the-counter (OTC) market in London. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) system covers the largest share of wholesale trade. Four market-making banks settle gold held in London through London Precious Metals Clearing Limited (LPMCL), which nets transfers between them. Good Delivery bars of about 400 troy ounces are the standard unit.

Exchanges and futures. COMEX in the US, the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Singapore and Hong Kong venues trade futures and kilo-bar contracts. COMEX warehouses are a visible stock of metal in the US.

Funds. Physically backed ETFs hold bars in vaults, mostly in London, and act as a large, fast-moving source of demand.

End users and the official sector. Jewellery, bar and coin buyers, technology users and central banks complete the chain.

2. Physical demand and volume in 2026

The World Gold Council (WGC) reports that Q3 2026 total demand was 1,369 tonnes, 1% lower year on year, with the LBMA PM price averaging US$4,262 per ounce. The value of demand rose 22% to about US$188 billion. Year-to-date demand to September is 3,881 tonnes, effectively level with the record 3,884 tonnes of the same period in 2025.

The mix has shifted:

• Central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3, up 42% year on year and the highest quarter since Q4 2024, bringing 2026 purchases to 675 tonnes (+6%).
• Gold ETFs reversed Q2 outflows with 211 tonnes of inflows in Q3, lifting holdings to a record 4,256 tonnes, with record quarterly inflows of about US$31 billion.
• Bar and coin demand fell to 268 tonnes, 19% lower. India dropped 40% to 55 tonnes, while China rose 7% to 79 tonnes. China’s year-to-date bar and coin demand of 393 tonnes is a record, and its spending of about US$59 billion exceeds any full year in the WGC series.
• Jewellery fell 17% to 313 tonnes, the weakest third quarter in the series, below the pandemic-hit Q3 2020. The UAE was among the sharpest decliners, down 29%.
• Technology demand rose 3%, helped by AI-related electronics manufacturing.
• OTC and other investment was estimated at 143 tonnes, up from 101 tonnes a year earlier.

The pattern is clear: price-sensitive retail and jewellery buyers pulled back, while institutional and official buyers absorbed the metal.

3. Trading and clearing volumes

Physical demand is only a fraction of traded volume. LBMA clearing data shows the net transfers settled between the clearing banks. In April 2026, gold transferred fell 12.2% month on month to 15.7 million ounces a day, worth US$74.2 billion. BullionVault reports that the average daily value of gold and silver cleared through London was US$84.2 billion in May, about 50% above May 2025 but one fifth below the all-time high above US$112 billion in January. Because of the price rise, ounces transferred were barely changed year on year in gold.

Gross trading is much larger. BullionVault, citing WGC-compiled LBMA trade data, puts gold volumes reported by all LBMA trading members at over US$216 billion a day in May, about 2.9 times clearing volumes, in line with a 2025 average of 2.8 times. On that measure one day of London trading is worth more than the whole of Q3’s physical demand (about US$188 billion).

4. Where the metal sits

LBMA data put London vault holdings at 9,821 tonnes at the end of September 2026, up 3.78% in the quarter and worth about US$1.3 trillion. The figure includes Bank of England holdings and excludes jewellery and private holdings outside the London clearing system. Holdings had been about 9,210 tonnes in early 2026 and 9,464 tonnes in June, so London has been drawing metal in all year. COMEX warehouses held about 841 tonnes in early August.

Another signal is Swiss exports. Customs data show 156.5 tonnes exported in August, of which 102.1 tonnes went to the UK, and 165.2 tonnes in September, the highest since February 2025, with 126.2 tonnes to the UK. Shipments to India were small, at 3.5 tonnes in August. The flow to London matches the ETF buying and vault growth above.

5. Structural changes in 2026

• Asian clearing. In July 2026, Hong Kong began a trial of a government-owned gold clearing and settlement system with 11 banks, only one of which is not already an LBMA member. Eligible bars follow the roughly 400-ounce international standard. Singapore is pursuing a similar push, and Citi joined LPMCL and became an approved weigher in London.
• Price volatility. The LBMA reported a Q3 gold range from about US$3,979 to US$4,664 per ounce, a spread of about 17%. Gold was near US$4,123 on 9 November.
• Official sector. Central banks remain the main structural buyer, though the WGC notes their buying shows some price sensitivity.

6. Outlook

The WGC expects investment to remain the main driver, supported by ETF flows and central bank purchases, with high prices continuing to restrain jewellery. Risks include bond yields, the US dollar, US midterm-election politics and any change in Chinese official buying. Analysts should treat LBMA and customs data as lagging indicators, and note that vault totals measure storage in London, not global investment demand.

7. SEC filings relevant to the 2026 bullion market

US-listed gold trusts file with the Securities and Exchange Commission and give audited ounce counts and custody details.

• SPDR Gold Trust (GLD, CIK 1222333). 10-Q filings in February, May and August 2026. Its quarterly report for the period to 31 December 2025 showed 34,465.6 thousand ounces held, fair value about US$148.5 billion, and net asset value per share up from US$352.09 to US$396.12. A February 2026 8-K reported a leadership change at the sponsor, World Gold Trust Services, LLC. An 8-K was filed on 28 September 2026. The fiscal year ends 30 September, so the FY2026 10-K is due around late November.
• SPDR Gold MiniShares (GLDM, World Gold Trust, CIK 1618181). Holdings reported at 5,870.5 thousand ounces, fair value about US$25.3 billion in the period summarised. An 8-K reported the end of custody agreements with ICBC Standard Bank, leaving JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as custodian.
• Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (AAAU, CIK 1708646). 10-K for FY2025 filed 24 February 2026 and a 10-Q for May 2026.
• Form 13F. Filings in February 2026 show GLD held by about 2,994 institutional holders, led by market makers and hedge funds such as LMR Partners, Susquehanna, Jane Street and Citadel.

These trusts value their gold using the LBMA Gold Price PM and disclose custody and unallocated-gold risks, which ties US fund disclosure directly to the London market.

References (2026)

SEC and regulatory filings

1. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), SEC filings index, Last10K.com, including 10-Q reports for Feb, May and Aug 2026 and 8-K of 28 Sep 2026: https://last10k.com/sec-filings/gld/0001437749-26-031296.htm
2. SPDR Gold Trust, SEC filings summary, Stock Titan (8-K of 9 Feb 2026; trust ounces and NAV): https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/GLD/
3. World Gold Trust / SPDR Gold MiniShares (GLDM) SEC filings, Stock Titan (custody 8-K, holdings): https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/GLDM
4. World Gold Trust (GLDM) filings, Last10K.com: https://last10k.com/sec-filings/gldm
5. Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (AAAU) 10-K filed 24 Feb 2026, Last10K.com: https://last10k.com/sec-filings/aaau
6. GLD filing list and 13F holder data, Equibles: https://equibles.com/stocks/gld/documents and https://equibles.com/stocks/gld/holdings
7. SPDR Gold Trust Form 10-K (FY2025): https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/SPDR_Gold_Trust_Form_10K_Q4-2025.pdf

Industry data and news

8. World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q3 2026 (published 3 Nov 2026): https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q3-2026 and investment chapter https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q3-2026/investment
9. World Gold Council press release, 3 Nov 2026: https://gold.org/news-and-events/press-releases/central-bank-buying-and-etf-inflows-support-gold-demand-q3
10. The Tribune (India), central bank buying and 2026 demand: https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/business/central-banks-buy-321-tonnes-of-gold-in-q3-lifting-2026-demand-to-675-tonnes-world-gold-council/
11. Daily Excelsior, Q3 demand value and jewellery: https://www.dailyexcelsior.com/global-gold-demand-down-1-pc-in-q3-at-1360-tonne-amid-uncertainty-over-price-wgc/
12. FXStreet / Money Metals, Q3 demand and China bar and coin: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-demand-steady-in-q3-supported-by-etfs-and-central-banks-202611040007
13. Khaleej Times, UAE jewellery demand Q3 2026: https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/uae-shoppers-pull-back-from-gold-jewellery-as-prices-bite-even-as-global-demand-holds-firm
14. investingLive, central bank buying Q3 2026: https://investinglive.com/commodities/central-bank-gold-buying-jumps-42-in-q3-as-high-prices-hit-jewellery-demand-wgc-says/
15. LBMA, Net Clearing Data, April 2026: https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/lbma-net-clearing-data-daily-averages-april-2026
16. LBMA, London Gold and Silver Vault Data (monthly 2026 releases) and Q3 2026 Precious Metals Market Report (14 Oct 2026), summarised by GoldSilver: https://goldsilver.com/?p=195902
17. Golden Ark Reserve, LBMA vault data September 2026: https://goldenarkreserve.com/?p=9120
18. BullionVault Gold News, Hong Kong gold clearing and LBMA volumes, 7 Jul 2026: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-news/gold-silver-trading-hong-kong-clearing-070720261
19. The Vault Report, visible COMEX and LBMA inventories (Aug 2026): https://thevaultreport.com/visible-inventories
20. Swiss customs gold exports, August 2026, Golden Ark Reserve: https://goldenarkreserve.com/?p=9032
21. SMM Precious Metals Express, Swiss exports September 2026 (23 Oct 2026): https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/104174202-smm-precious-metals-express
22. Kitco News, Swiss gold exports, Feb and Mar 2026: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-03-19/swiss-gold-exports-fall-their-lowest-level-tariff-shock-august-2025 and https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-04-22/switzerlands-gold-exports-rise-30-investors-seek-safe-haven-amid-global
23. Fortune, current price of gold, 9 Nov 2026: https://fortune.com/article/current-price-of-gold-11-09-2026/

This article is for information and is not investment advice. Third-party figures are quoted as published and may be revised.